This is the second blog in a series by Neel Koritala. Neel is a student at the University of Illinois studying Earth, Society, and Environmental Sustainability. Neel is interested in climate research and policy and has been a part of climate research in New Zealand. He will be sharing changes in state and federal policy concerning the food and farm system through blogs for The Land Connection in his last semester as a student.
Tariffs are putting immense pressure on US farmers, especially in key agricultural states like Illinois. Farmers have faced decreased export demand, greater production costs, and more financial instability. The US agricultural industry has become less predictable and less profitable. International trade relations are being strained, commodity prices are plummeting, and farmers are forced to rethink the way they plant. If these tariffs persist, US agriculture could look very different in the long term. We may see further consolidation of farmland/agricultural producers, changes to the structure of the agricultural economy, and changes to global trade relationships.
Immediate Impacts
Global demand for all US crops and meat has decreased, but soybeans and pork have taken a significant hit. China is the leading recipient of both of these. Data has shown a 72% drop in pork sales for the week of April 17th, the lowest in 2025. Furthermore, there have been only 1800 tons of soybeans purchased in the same week, much less than the 72800 tons of soybeans purchased during the week before tariffs went into effect. Illinois farmers have particularly felt these impacts, as Illinois is a leading producer of both soybeans and pork.
The cost for production of crops has gone up as well. Fertilizer costs have increased by around 10-25% greater than pre-tariff levels. Canada is the leading importer of fertilizers such as potash. Potash is an important component of potassium fertilizer and is used to improve plant health and crop yield on food crops like cereal grains and root crops. Potash can also be used to supplement livestock feed. Thus, the implemented tariffs on potash have raised prices for consumers because food producers have incurred new costs importing the resource for production. Additionally, machinery has become more expensive. Many machine parts necessary for farm equipment come from China, and their price has skyrocketed with the tariffs. With these increasing costs and decreasing profit, farmers’ margins are shrinking quickly. Farmers are planting different crops due to the tariffs. Soybean planting has decreased by 3.5 million acres, likely due to the tariffs. A widely used, albeit not environmentally sound, method of planting before the tariffs was a rotation of soybeans and corn, but that is beginning to change. Instead of planting soybeans this spring, in alignment with a dual cropping system, some farmers have begun planting corn, moving to a monocropping system. While this is not yet widespread, it seems that corn could become more profitable than soybeans soon.
Long Term Impacts
First, the Illinois soybean industry may have difficulty reestablishing global trade relationships. China has shifted its sourcing of soybeans to Brazil and Argentina. Depending on the length of the tariffs, building a stable trading relationship between China and the US could take time, leaving farmers with less demand. Beyond exports, there will likely be less investment and innovation in the agricultural industry. With unstable markets and unsure futures, there will likely be more focus on shrinking operations to survive. Farmers will not have the necessary profit needed to invest in sustainable practices or new technology. Finally, small and mid-sized farms (500 to 3000 tillable acres) may be acquired by large corporations. These farms already operate on small profit margins and, with these tariffs, may become impossible to sustain. Thus, many farms may end up selling to larger corporations.
There is still hope for a diplomatic solution. Although the damage to trade relationships has been extensive, global officials are attempting to reach agreements with the US. The agricultural industry is likely to be changed greatly by these tariffs, but farmers’ resilience and quick adaptation will bring them through this difficult time.
